Tebow's Secret

How cool has this season been? Watching such an unorthodox style succeed in the NFL has created such a buzz. How can Tebow keep winning while throwing so poorly? That is really the question. I don't think it is as crazy as everyone thinks. Here is the secret... most good QB's need to complete 65% of their passes to win or to at least move the ball and score. So how is Tebow able to complete like only 48% of his passes and still win? The secret is that most NFL QB that throw a high percentage also throw a lot of short passes. Short passes tend to be high percentage and have essentially replaced a number of running attempts. But in Denver they have gone back to replacing short, high percentage, passes with runs. And having a QB that can read option run creates an advantage in the running game that makes it more effective. Then when called on to pass, Tebow often takes shots downfield which are not high percentage passes to begin with but are game breaking passes. Case in point was last week against Pittsburgh. Only 10 completions and 316 yds! That is nuts but it makes my point and shows what can happen when it is working right. You don't need to complete 65% of your passes when you have an effective running game and have big play passes. Ball control and low turnovers keep them in the game for Tebow-time at the end. When Tebow can't make downfield plays and the running game is shutdown, Denver loses.

We always think we know what can and cannot work, we are trapped by our assumptions. I love the fact that Tebow is challenging assumptions. He is changing the game. He may not win the super bowl or even be good next year. But you can win playing differently and it can create advantages for your team. I think you'll see more of it in the future. I love the offense Oregon runs and their move towards utility rather than just more specialization. Like they have multiple positions that need to run or throw, even kickers! I even saw a couple punters in the NFL try to pass this season because a WR was uncovered, it failed because the punter simply tanked the throw. But I think it's a good strategy, there is no reason punters could not learn to throw the ball 20 yards accurately to a wide open receiver. That would be a major advantage.